Portfolio Optimisation
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Intuitive Bayesian methods for portfolio selection – Part II Bayes and Jeffrey
Bayes’ theorem in its common form describes the way in which one’s beliefs about observing ‘A’ are updated by having observed ‘B’. Bayes’ theorem relates the conditional and marginal probabilities of events A and B, where B has a non-vanishing probability. Each term in Bayes’ theorem has a conventional name: P(A) is the prior probability Continue reading
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Intuitive Bayesian methods for portfolio selection – Part I Background
Introduction Disruptive platform technologies usually have a broad base of application. During early stage development, before there is a developed market, the selection of a particular product is usually a ‘high risk, low data’ decision. There are a large number of unknowns, both the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns; we seek the resolve these Continue reading
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Intuitive Bass Diffusion
There is an excellent post by Mathias, which rephrases the Bass diffusion curve in more accessible terms and language. You can view his posting for the full explanation. I’ve taken the Excel file and created an interactive dashboard from it. Click here to launch the Dashboard Continue reading
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Interactive Gompertz Model
In high tech start-ups the development cycle can last for a period of several years. We can capture new product introduction where the pre-revenue start-up phase is anticipated to be long using a Gompertz curve. There is a full description on Wikipedia. Sales Function Cumulative Sales Function m 500 Ultimate market potential (m) b 0.4 Continue reading
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Index of Interactive Dashboards
Interactive Portfolio Model – Posting / Dashboard Product Requirements Capture and Competitive Benchmarking – Posting / Dashboard Economic Value Model – Posting / Dashboard Bass Diffusion Model – Posting / Dashboard Value at Risk – Posting / Dashboard Net Present Value – Posting / Dashboard Gompertz Model – Posting / Dashboard Intuitive Bass Diffusion – Continue reading
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Interactive Bass Diffusion Model
Click here to launch Interactive Bass Diffusion Model The Bass diffusion model was developed by Frank Bass and describes the process how new products get adopted as an interaction between users and potential users. The model is widely used in forecasting, especially product forecasting and technology forecasting. Click here for the full description on Wikipedia. Continue reading
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Market Requirement and Product Fit
In a high value technology product there are typical three types of stakeholder that have separate concerns who each ‘speak a different language’. These types of buyer are highlighted in Crossing the Chasm. The economic buyer, technical buyer and user. When building a sales proposition and message it is common to make the mistake of Continue reading
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Monte Carlo Portfolio Optimisation
Download the excel model here The portfolio representation described previously included project costs and returns that were purely deterministic. In reality there were be large uncertainties in both, for example a 6 month project overrun will increase overall project costs and is also likely to reduce returns. We can use Monte Carlo analysis to model Continue reading
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Interactive Value at Risk (VAR) chart
The VAR chart is useful in the sense that it describes values such as NPV a distribution as opposed to a single point estimate. No amount of modelling will ever fully anticipate what lady fortune has in store but it is still worth trying to gain a deeper understanding of risk drivers so you can Continue reading
About Me
An entrepreneurial engineer driven by patient impact. C0-founder and CEO of Owlstone Medical with a company mission to save 100k lives. I also try to support engineers and scientists and their start-up ideas.
Recent Posts
- Kelly Criterion – behavioral edge vs analytical and information edge in investing
- The Wheel of Fortune: Boethius runs a Start-up
- Talk at the Royal Academy of Engineering Awardee Excellence Community Launch
- The difference between today problems and tomorrow problems and why Indiana Jones had the right idea
- Marketing Automation and Selling to Scientists
Billy Boyle Blog 