In high tech start-ups the development cycle can last for a period of several years. We can capture new product introduction where the pre-revenue start-up phase is anticipated to be long using a Gompertz curve. There is a full description on Wikipedia.
Sales Function
Cumulative Sales Function
|
m |
500 |
Ultimate market potential (m) |
|
b |
0.4 |
Scale Parameter (b) |
|
η |
30 |
Shape Parameter (n) |
Click here to launch Interactive Gompertz Model
The Xcelcius dashboard allows users to interactively vary the parameters of the model. This is useful when doing ‘what if’ analysis during product portfolio planning stage. The sales profile is more realistic and can be embedded into the interactive portfolio or we can create a Monte Carlo income statement with distributions to describe uncertainty.
Billy Boyle Blog 
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