Real Options

July 17, 2010

On average, our customers have one breast and one testicle – the problem of forecasting

The ‘Flaw of Averages‘ is alive and well in sales forecasting in CRM software. I have fallen in love with salesforce.com (big time) and have been playing about with the forecasting module; great, but is doesn’t capture the binary nature of a sales opportunity. If I have an opportunity for $100k and assign a subjective Continue reading

Excel, Real Options

Monte Carlo, Simulation
June 28, 2008

Interactive Net Present Value (NPV)

Net present value (NPV) is defined as the present value of net cash flows. It is a standard method for using the time value of money to appraise long-term projects. See full description at Wikipedia. Each cash inflow/outflow is discounted back to its present value (PV). Then they are summed. Therefore Where t – the Continue reading

Portfolio Optimisation, Real Options
June 10, 2008

SBIR Monte Carlo Analysis

Introduction SBIR grants are a key source of early stage financing for many small companies – awards are frequent, transparent, 100% funded (allowing significant non-dilutive growth), and may result in product revenue as the agencies act as informed customers. Here is a useful link explaining SBIRs and a report by David Connell, which argues that Continue reading

Real Options, SBIR

Monte Carlo, SBIR

About Me

An entrepreneurial engineer driven by patient impact. C0-founder and CEO of Owlstone Medical with a company mission to save 100k lives. I also try to support engineers and scientists and their start-up ideas.

Billy Boyle Blog

Real Options

On average, our customers have one breast and one testicle – the problem of forecasting

Interactive Net Present Value (NPV)

SBIR Monte Carlo Analysis

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