Bayes’ theorem in its common form describes the way in which one’s beliefs about observing ‘A’ are updated by having observed ‘B’. Bayes’ theorem relates the conditional and marginal probabilities of events A and B, where B has a non-vanishing probability. Each term in Bayes’ theorem has a conventional name: P(A) is the prior probability Continue reading

Introduction Disruptive platform technologies usually have a broad base of application. During early stage development, before there is a developed market, the selection of a particular product is usually a ‘high risk, low data’ decision. There are a large number of unknowns, both the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns; we seek the resolve these Continue reading